Strategic outlook（Former Strategic Annual Report）

Strategic outlook 2025

Full text of “Strategic outlook 2025”

Contents

Message from the President

“A Quest for Global Resilience” Explained

Chapter 1: Japan’s Course: Year One for Both Challenge Sharing and National Strategy

Chapter 2: Foreign and Security Policies of the Second Trump Administration

Chapter 3: Promoting “America First” and MAGA: Republican Party Domination of All Three Branches of the Federal Government

Chapter 4: Heightened Uncertainty in US-China Relations and the Situation in the Taiwan Strait

Chapter 5: Will Economic Stagnation and a Preoccupation with National Security Continue Under the Increasingly Personalised Control of Xi Jinping?

Chapter 6: Possible US-North Korea Dialogue with the Trump Administration and Sustainable Japan-ROK Relations

Chapter 7: US “Withdrawal” from the War in Ukraine and Europe’s Choice: Japan-Europe Partnership Soar

Chapter 8: The Continuing War of Attrition in Ukraine: What Will the Trump Administration and Prolonged War Bring?

Chapter 9: The Middle East during the Second Trump Administration: Palestine in Turmoil and Business Opportunities Centered on Oil-Producing Countries

Chapter 10: Economic Security in an Era of International Competition: The Pursuit of Superiority and Security

Chapter 11: Further Challenges to the Free Trade System: A Chain Reaction of Protectionism as the Greatest Concern

Chapter 12: The Impact of the Development and Proliferation of Artificial Intelligence and Unmanned Systems on Security

Chapter 13: Re-evaluation of Disinformation Countermeasures and Expansion of International Collaboration on Disinformation Challenges in the Indo-Pacific Region

Chapter 14: Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation in the Face of Continuing Challenges

Strategic Annual Report

The Japan Institute of International Affairs marked its 60th anniversary in 2019 by releasing its first “Strategic Annual Report” and hosting the “1st Tokyo Global Dialogue”, a flagship international symposium on the same theme as the report that featured numerous prominent figures and experts from inside and outside Japan as speakers. We intend to continue releasing the “Strategic Annual Report” and holding the Tokyo Global Dialogue on a regular basis.