Research Group on 'Traditional Security Risks' FY2024-# 3

"Research Reports" are compiled by participants in research groups set up at The Japan Institute of International Affairs, and are designed to disseminate, in a timely fashion, the content of presentations made at research group meetings or analyses of current affairs. "Research Reports" represent their authors' views.

1. General Remarks

The results of the recent European Parliament (EP) elections in Eastern Europe can be summed up in one simple statement: there was no clear winner. So-called "populist" parties garnered a certain amount of support while parties with a strong European orientation, or conversely parties with an anti-European agenda, also gained some votes in their respective countries, but none of these groups secured enough support to take the lead. Although there is some talk of the rise of the "far right" as a result of this election, this is not the first time that such talk has surfaced, and in most cases the parties emphasizing an anti-European or nationalist stance, having already obtained a certain amount of support in their countries, also won seats in the European Parliament in this election. In Hungary, however, the newly emerged TISZA (Tisztelet és Szabadság Párt: Respect and Freedom Party) has acquired some support and shown the potential to compete with the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz), so future developments will merit continued monitoring.

Here we will focus on five Eastern European countries that are members of the EU - Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia - and attempt to briefly examine them while also comparing their 2024 election results with those of 2019.¹

2. Poland

　The five parliamentary groups that won seats in the election were: the Civic Coalition (KO) formed by liberal parties and led by the ruling Civic Platform (PO); the United Right (ZP) led by the conservative nationalist party Law and Justice (PiS); the Confederation Liberty and Independence (KWiN), which emphasizes anti-European nationalism while pursuing economic liberalism; the Third Way (TD, formed by the conservative Polish People's Party (PSL) in alliance with the pro-European liberal-conservative Europe 2050; and The Left (Lewica), which worked in coalition with the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) and new left-wing parties. These five groups encompass the parties that won seats in the lower house of parliament in the parliamentary elections held in 2023 as well as nearly all the votes in recent elections in Poland. At this point in time, Poland can be seen as having a party system that is generally based on a left-right axis.

In comparison to the previous election, the Civic Platform, the Polish People's Party, and the Democratic Left Alliance, which were in opposition at the time, jointly formed a unified list - the European Coalition (KE) - for the last election but were unable to win more seats than the ruling party Law and Justice. This time, however, not only did the Civic Platform come in first place, but the Third Way and The Left also won seats, and the combined seats of the three parties secured a majority. Similar trends have been seen in recent polls, which basically show that support for Law and Justice is weaker than it once was, while the current liberal ruling parties are gaining support.² It should be noted, however, that the support of some younger voters, especially men who are dissatisfied with the status quo, is flowing to the Confederation Liberty and Independence and has become that party's base.

The turnout for this election in Poland was 40.65%, higher than the levels in the earliest European Parliament elections but not as high as the 45.68% turnout for the last election in 2019 (the turnout was 20.87% in the first election in 2004, 24.53% in the second election in 2009, and 23.83% in the third election in 2014).

Table 1: Polish election results (53 seats, 40.65% voter turnout)

Political party	Political group*	Percentage of votes	Number of EP seats	Change
KO	EPP	37.06%	21	+21**
ZP	ECR	36.16%	20	-7
KWiN	Non-attached	12.08%	6	+6
TD	EPP	6.91%	3	+3**
Lewica	S&D	6.30%	3	+3**

*Political group within the European Parliament
**Formally, each party is assumed to have gained new seats this time, but a comparison of the difference between the number of seats won by KE in 2019 (22 seats) and the number of seats won this time by these three parties reveals the overall difference in seats won is +5.
[Source] Election Commission of the Republic of Poland website (https://wybory.gov.pl/pe2024/)

3. Hungary

In Hungary, the ruling Fidesz-KDNP Party Alliance (an alliance of the Fidesz-Hungarian Civil Alliance and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP)) won seats in the recent European Parliament elections, as did the emerging TISZA party mentioned above, a coalition of center-left parties (the Democratic Coalition (DK), the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), and the Dialogue-Green Party (Párbeszéd-Zöldek), and the far-right Our Homeland Movement (MHM). In the last election in 2019, the Democratic Coalition won four seats and the Hungarian Socialist Party one, but this time the coalition of these two parties plus the Greens won only two seats, while TISZA, which is essentially participating in elections for the first time, won seven seats.

TISZA is a center-right conservative party that was initially formed to participate in the 2022 parliamentary elections, but it was not until 2024, when Péter Magyar assumed control of the party, that it came into the spotlight. Originally belonging to Fidesz, Magyar gradually gained attention for his criticism of the scandal surrounding an amnesty granted by the Fidesz government earlier this year, but his position is basically conservative and he has thereby succeeded in capturing the support of conservative voters critical of Fidesz.³ The influence of center-liberal parties in Hungarian party politics continues to be limited, as evidenced by the fact that the Our Homeland Movement, which won six seats in the 2022 national parliamentary elections, won seats in the European Parliament for the first time, and an adversarial relationship is likely forming gradually among the conservative segment of the population between those who support Fidesz and those who do not.

The 58.47% voter turnout in Hungary in the current election is the highest in the last five elections (38.5% in 2004, followed by 36.31%, 28.97%, and 43.58% in subsequent years). This is most likely connected with the fact that TISZA's rise has intensified voters' interest in the elections.

Table 2: Hungarian election results (21 seats, 58.47% voter turnout)

Political party	Political group	Percentage of votes	Number of EP seats	Change
FIDESZ-KNDP	PfE*	44.79%	11	-2
TISZA	EPP	29.60%	7	+7
DK-MSZP-Párbeszéd-Zöldek	S&D	8.08%	2	-3*
MHM	Non-attached	6.74%	1	+1

*Fidesz's affiliation will be discussed at the end, along with ANO.
**Variation from the previous seat total for MSZP and DK
[Source] Hungarian Election Commission (https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ep2024)

4. Czech Republic

Even though the number of seats at stake in the Czech European Parliament elections is not necessarily large, Eastern European countries tend to see a relatively large number of parties often win seats, and again seven parties won seats in this election. However, Spolu (meaning "together," an alliance that is part of the current coalition government comprising the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and the Christian and Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-ČSL), the conservative liberal party coalition of TOP 09), each of which entered the election with a separate list, had total seats in the 2019 The Czech Pirate Party (Piráti), also a ruling party in the same coalition, also lost seats, while ANO 2011, which was the ruling party prior to the 2021 elections, retained its first party position, albeit by one seat from Spolu. The election also saw new seats won by Přísaha and Motorists, a coalition of two parties that advocate fighting corruption and that are anti-European, opposed especially to European environmental regulations; Stačilo! (meaning "Enough!"), a coalition of left-wing parties led by the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM); and the liberal Mayors and Personalities for Europe.⁴

In the past, the Czech Republic had a functioning party system based on economic policy differences between the two major parties, the Civic Democratic Party and Social Democracy (previously the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD); now Social Democracy, or SOCDEM) but, since the 2010 national elections, Social Democracy has lost influence even as new parties with various positions "opposed to existing politics and parties" have appeared in different forms or combinations in each election, and the most recent elections confirm that this trend continues.

The Czech turnout of 36.45% was not high, but it was the highest turnout ever for a European Parliament election in the Czech Republic, as the turnouts for the previous four elections were all under 30% (the lowest, for the third election in 2014, was 18.20%).

Table 3: Czech election results (21 seats, 36.45% voter turnout)

Political party	Political group	Percentage of votes	Number of EP seats	Change
ANO 2011	PfE	26.14%	7	+1
Spolu	ECR/EPP	22.27%	6	-3*
Přísaha and Motorists	ECR (pending application for affiliation?)	10.26%	2	+2
Stačilo!	non-partisan	9.56%	2	+1**
Mayors and Personalities for Europe	EPP	8.70%	2	+2
Czech Pirate Party	Greens-EFA	6.20%	1	-2
SPD a Trikolora	Non-attached	5.73%	1	-1

*Difference from ODS+ KDU-CSL+TOP09-STAN total for the last election
**Difference from KSČM in the last election
[Source] Czech Statistical Office (https://www.volby.cz/pls/ep2024/ep?xjazyk=EN)

5.Slovakia

Slovakia's largest opposition liberal party, Progressive Slovakia (PS), became the first party across the line, although Direction - Social Democracy (SMER-SD), which returned to power after winning the 2023 parliamentary elections, gained some support. The Republic Movement (Republika), which advocates stronger measures against illegal immigration and anti-LGBT policies, and Voice - Social Democracy (HLAS-SD), the ruling coalition formed by former prime minister Peter Pellegrini, who left his post to become president in June, each won new seats in this election. Of these, the Republic Movement has no seats in the National Council, and this is the first time it has won seats in an election. On the other hand, the nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS), which is a member of the coalition government, received only 1.9% of the vote and failed to win any seats.

The assassination attempt against Prime Minister Robert Fico prior to the election did not itself have a major impact on the election, but recent polls show that support for PS is rising, and criticism of SMER's authoritarian politics is spreading. Like the Czech Republic, Slovakia had never had a turnout of more than 30% in European Parliament elections, but the turnout exceeded 30% for the first time in this election.

Table 4: Slovak election results (15 seats, 34.38% voter turnout)

Political party	Political group	Percentage of votes	Number of EP seats	Change
PS	Renew	27.81%	6	+2
SMER-SD	Non-attached*	24.76%	5	+2
Republika	Non-attached	12.53%	2	+2
HLAS-SD	Non-attached*	7.18%	1	+1
KDH	EPP	7.14%	1	-1

*Both parties are members of S&D's parent European political party, the European Socialist Party, but their membership status has been suspended since October 2023 for violating the party's policies in dealing with Russia, immigration, and LGBTQ issues.
[Source] Slovak Statistical Office (https://volbysr.sk/en/vysledky_hlasovania_strany.html)

6. Estonia

In Estonia, there were some shifts in seats, but essentially, like the previous election, the five parties with seats in the national parliament also won European Parliament seats: natoinal- conservative Fatherland (I), the Social Democratic Party (SDE), the liberal Estonian Reform Party (RE), the center-left Estonian Centre Party (EK), which has the support of the Russian-speaking population, and the Euroskeptic Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), which has recently joined the government and is establishing a certain position within the party system. Although there was some controversy over the anti-EU Conservative People's Party's victory in the last election, support for the party has not grown significantly since then, and the party won only one seat this time, as it did in the previous election. Estonia 200, a pro-EU party advocating cooperation between ethnic Estonian and Russian-speaking citizens that is currently part of a coalition government with the Reform Party and the Social Democratic Party, received fewer votes than in the 2019 European Parliament elections (3.2% in 2019 versus 2.6% in 2024) and failed to win any seats.

Conservative voters in Estonia who are dissatisfied with Estonia's current reformist-centered government have been increasingly supporting Fatherland in recent years, and polls often show them garnering the highest approval ratings, a trend that can be seen in this election as well. Note that Estonia's turnout in the European Parliament election was 37.6%, basically the same level as in the previous election (37.6%).

Table 5: Estonian election results (7 seats, 37.6% voter turnout)

Political party	Political party group	Percentage of votes	Number of EP seats	Change
I	EPP	26.2%	2	+1
SDE	S&D	19.3%	2	0
RE.	Renew	17.9%	1	-1
EKRE	ECR	14.8%	1	0
EK	Renew	12.4%	1	0

[Source] Estonian Election Commission (https://www.valimised.ee/en)

A comparison of these countries shows clear differences in the political orientations between parties in each country, and these differences affect the political parties that are represented in the party system but, in Eastern Europe as a whole inclusive of the countries not discussed here, "anti-EU" is not a very strong current. However, opposition to the EU's imposition of "values" and a desire to prioritize one's own country have a certain degree of support in all countries, and this can be seen as influencing the current political rivalries among the parties in each country. However, since no major elections will be held in the countries discussed here in the foreseeable future (unless Parliament is dissolved, the Czech Republic's next election will be held in the fall of 2025), new movements such as TISZA's in Hungary will emerge only after the elections in each country draw near.

Finally, in a major post-election development, it was announced on June 30 that Fidesz, ANO, and the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) would join to form a new European Parliament group, Patriots for Europe (PfE). Major "far-right" parties from around Europe subsequently declared their intention to join the group, and it was ultimately announced on July 8 that the new group would have 84 members from 13 parties in 12 member states.⁵ This will be the third largest political group in the European Parliament after the EPP (188 seats) and S&D (136 seats).⁶ However, its influence in the EP is expected to be limited due to the difficulty of aligning with other political groups.

(This is an English translation of a Japanese paper originally published on July 17, 2024)

[Reference] Major European Parliament groups

• European People's Party Group (EPP)

• Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)

• Renew Europe (Renew)

• Greens-Europe Free alliance (Greens-EFA)

• European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)

• The Left in the European Parliament (The Left)

[This paper is part of the deliverables for Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A) (General) "The Linkage between Changes in Party Politics and Social Policy Transformation: A Comparison of Emerging Democracies" (Project No. 20H00058).

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